Cold War 2: Rise of the New Axis versus the West
Villeneuve’s Dune 2 is a masterpiece just like Dune 1. Amazing story and a feast for the eyes. An epic story based on the rise of Mohammed and Islam.
There is a specific scene when Paul Atreides is talking with his mentor & Weapons master, Gurney Halleck.
“No need to be a prophet to see what’s ahead. Your path leads to war. You know that. So war is coming. What will you do when you feel it’s breath on your neck?”
This is how I feel. As I read the news, as I travel the world, as I talk with people around the world. Not everyone but those in the know. Past and present soldiers, Dept of Defense folks, people who run Family offices, even PE guys and bankers.
The Thucydides trap, when a rising power or powers face a declining one, war is the inevitable outcome. Now we have the Axis of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea unified in taking the faltering hegemon of the United States and its Allies in the West.
People will say we are not at war yet. I would disagree. It’s not a direct hot war but more of a hybrid war. One of ideas: Democratic versus autocratic rule.
One of trade, economics and on the monetary side: China is doing trade deals across the Global South via their Belt & Road Initiative and the US via the World Bank and IMF. All with their own flavor of Economic Hitman strategy: one where you lend out debt that a country can never repay and you end up owning their natural resources.
One of proxy wars: just look at what’s happening Ukraine, in the Red Sea, Israel & the South China Seas.
One of espionage, cyber warfare and straight up sabotage. The incredible amount of IP theft from the West. The fentanyl being smuggled into the US, killing 100,000s of Americans a year, all based on Chinese base chemicals and chemists. Mysterious train de-railings, food or ammo factory fires, energy infrastructure and bridges failings.
One of disinformation, propaganda and media, where troll farms are active on all the social media platforms spreading fake news. We do, our enemies do it and I would argue our enemies do it better due to our own division and lack of control of the media unlike in the new Axis countries.
This is why we need to be raising tariffs (albeit in a more structured and less chaotic way) and rebuilding our industrial base. This is why we need to have a strategy like we did in Cold War 1. This is why we need to prepare the populace at large to be mentally ready for deprivation. More importantly this is why we need to gain unity as the wolves are at the door. Barbarians are at the gates. Unity within America but also unity with our allies in Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan, something the Trump admin has done a poor job of.
We had an incredible run of prosperity but the world has changed. We are facing one of the biggest threats to our way of life in this new Axis and this time without great leadership, the resources, wealth and power we had before. So getting out of this mess and winning will require hard work, intelligence, discipline and sacrifice. Something most people in the West have not had to do for a while. Let’s hope and pray we are all up to this.